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Szenarioanalyse

Ritu Gulati, Kristine Herkstr Oeter and Katja Kana pin

The scenario analysis has its origins in the military imperious area. To the martial skills to train emergency, have Militärsp ezialisten scenarios of possible Kriegsk designed onstellationen and success event determined ource strategies.

In entrepreneurial field was the scenario analysis by first in the 70s. Distr laggebend it was the oil crisis in 1973.

esem In Di Together hang scenarios are not predictions nor Prophezeiu nts, which are based on the administration of prophets. Scenarios is formulated to fields, hypothetical Scheme visions of socio-economic problem . These take into account possible development opportunities many alternative development and developed systematically. Their origin is TRAINING comprehensible to others. These scenarios include both qualitative Au ch quantitative statements about futures and serve de r orientation and the Decision-makers idungsvo rbereitung.

Scenario analysis itself is a planning instrument . The purpose of this future term trends are pointed . Three basic types of scenarios can been developed. This is it is the positive extreme scenario. This the best possible future Developme modeled subsided and describes a positively valued Zukunftszu stand, dessen tatsächliche Realisierung unwahrscheinlich aber niemals unmöglich sein darf.

Das negative Extrem-Szenario stellt den zweiten Grundtyp dar. Mit diesem soll die schlechtmöglichste Zukunftssi tuation modelliert werden. Es handelt sich dabei um einen negativ bewertete n Extremzu stand. Für diesen gilt, dass er unwahr scheinlich, aber nicht unmöglich sein darf.

Bei dem dritten Grundtypen handelt es sich um das so genannte Trendsze scenario. This guy writes today, current situation in the e future continues. The future, the model is so FOURTH could also "extended ngerte " call the present.

with de m scenario funnel can be shown Grundt ypes. The Schnittf AREA OF of the funnel on Bezugsh Orizont (for example, the 2020 ) contains all possible developments Gen. These contain the one of the T during the positive and the negative extreme scenario. The path from the B is the presence reached scenario does not gnisse linear but is characterized by Störerei . The following figure shows the scenario funnel. In kurzfri term future speaks of five to ten years , medium-term future eleven to twenty years and long-term future of 20 years.

( http://lehrerfortbildung-bw.de/kompetenzen/projektkompetenz/
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The scenario analysis as an objective regarding the collection and structuring of information of a problem. Likewise, the temporal evolution tracked important factors and their implications are examined for interesting scenarios. All this serves to better assess opportunities and risks.

To reach the goal, one divides the scenario analysis, often in four steps.

first Analysis: It will take place the limitation of the research object, ie the definition and structuring the specific area of \u200b\u200bthe scenario analysis.

second projection: In the second step, measures adopted to describe. Likewise, trends are established for these indicators. Disturbances are included. From the trends and the disturbances can create different scenarios as development options.

third evaluation: This step means there are several alternative future possibilities. This Rohszenarien be prepared so that the previously identified Target group to be understood.

4th The last step is the achievement: it is chosen for a scenario with the appropriate path. Takes into account the lessons learned.

scenarios can be distinguished also by various action and responsibility.

- business scenarios: By including critical scenarios companies recognize the indicators are.

- energy scenarios: The energy scenarios is mainly a question to the fore: how long the currently known stocks of non-renewable resource ranges under different constraints.

- industry scenarios: the relevant knowledge on markets, industries and environmental factors is usually present in the company. Here it comes out to figure out on what future forms a selected industry prepare .

- world scenarios: In the current discussion of global scenarios currently most frequently asked question: What factors contribute to how the global climate?

We see that this method can not be limited to enterprise scenarios.

also commonly future developments, such as world energy scenarios or scenarios can be determined.

Conclusion:

Die Methode zeigt sowohl Vor- als auch Nachteile. Dafür spricht, dass der Hintergrund der Entscheidungsverantwortlichen erweitert wird. Ebenso ist diese Methode, wie vorher schon beschrieben, vielseitig einsetzbar. Die Methode zeigt nicht nur die „Zukunft“, sondern auch einen möglichen Weg dorthin.

Jedoch ist diese Methode mit einem hohen Aufwand verbunden und zudem sind wenig quantitative Aussagen möglich.

Aufgrund der Komplexität können aber auch Fehler auftreten. Obwohl Störvariablen berücksichtigt werden this method from exogenous shocks, such as the 11th September or world war, not "safe".

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Globalisierung im Agribusiness

Katja Kanapin, Ritu Gulati, Kristine Herkströter

globalization is today a much-used buzzword and triggers different reactions. On the one hand, this term associated expectations in terms of global prosperity and progress. On the other hand, it causes anxiety, particularly unemployment and cuts in social services, from environmental destruction and a world unified culture.

What is Agribusiness?

"Agribusiness or agribusiness called Anglicism (from the English word" agriculture "and" business ") next to agriculture in the upstream and downstream economic activities. Together they form a value chain "(http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/agribusiness, Stand: 01.12.07)

." Agribusiness includes the agricultural sector, and all upstream and downstream industrial and service sectors. "(http://agrar.uni-hohenheim.de, Stand: 01.12.07)

These definitions reflect what is globalization.

"Globalization is the process of increasing global interdependence in all areas (economy, culture, environment, communication, etc.). This intensification occurs at the level of individuals, companies, institutions and states. "(Http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/globalisierung, as of 01:12:07)

" Globalization is changing the world economy understood, leading to more cross-border transactions. In the cultural and social areas there is a globalization. " (Http://www.globalisierung-info.de/definition.html, as of 01:12:07)

Several causes lead to globalization.

1. Technical progress has reduced the transportation and communication costs.
2. progress in the liberalization of international goods and services exchange through GATT rounds and trade agreements. Sun industrial tariffs to below 10 percent have been reduced. Worldwide, it has reduced financial market regulations, so that exchange rates and interest rates can now develop more market-oriented than before. Advances in technology have combined with the liberalization Created increased opportunity for companies to operate in international markets.
3. carry as much political events to this. The disappearance of the Soviet bloc allowed economic activities with the Eastern European countries.

globalization leads to significant changes in the global economy. Markets are merging to become larger.

episodes occur in different areas. The globalization of the labor market is no longer regional, but limited global. The result is an enormous increase in labor supply. The labor is cheaper in many areas of the world als in Westeuropa. ( à Billiglohnländer)

Auf dem Gütermarkt führt Globalisierung zu einem größeren Angebot und zu niedrigeren Preisen. Oft können Firmen in den Industrieländern dem Druck nicht mehr standhalten und müssen ihr Handeln anpassen und wandern in Billiglohnländern ab.

Die Gefahr für die Umwelt geht mit dem Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft einher. Schwellenländer ist die Notwendigkeit von Umweltschutz noch unbekannt, bzw. ordnen diesem eine untergeordnete Bedeutung zu.

Die Globalisierung hat auch den Agrarbereich erreicht. Besonders bei verarbeiteten Lebensmitteln. Produktdifferenzierung, sinkende Durchschnittskosten production and the desire of the imperfect competition cause. companies have the opportunity to invest in other countries, lower transportation and communication costs make it cost effective. In addition, demand from consumers, such as coffee, fresh fruit, vegetables and other products at any time available.

In the field of ocean freight costs fell by 65%. The cost of air transportation decreased significantly. Similarly, the costs fell dramatically for telecommunications. Communication in 2005 was more affordable than ever before.

These savings allow companies and promote a simple and inexpensive "(Together) work" with the or abroad.

in the use of computers and appropriate software can be concluded that almost all the training facilities in Baden-Württemberg is already using a computer, 70% of them have more than 10 years, are provided. 60% of the companies even have multiple computers. The spreadsheet takes a high application. Graphics programs and databases play in comparison, a relatively minor role.

Looking at the Internet use it is found that this is mainly used for the Internet care as well as for communication. The Internet use for the conduct of business is playing with 70% of farms a major role.

The extent of globalization can be seen from the importance of direct investment and trade.

Globalisation brings both advantages and disadvantages.

Globalization provides the opportunity to conduct international trade. Countries and regions now have better opportunities to sell their products and promote the development of the economy. This multi-prosperity. For consumers, there are also quite personal, tangible benefits: You can buy fresh fruit throughout the year, there are coffee and tea. The world is a result of air traffic moved closer together and there is the opportunity to travel the world or anywhere in the world, because of communications technology to make phone calls or use other techniques.

However, globalization also has its dark side. Globalization demand on the adaptability of many people. Workers and entrepreneurs do not make it accessible not to adapt, or them is difficult.

To conclude that it is globalization a process and not a state that is favored by several factors.

Even the agricultural sector is affected. Mechanization of Betriebe, geringere Zölle und anderes. Die Globalisierung bringt sowohl Vor- als auch Nachteile mit sich. Es ist ein Prozess, der weiterhin anhalten wird.

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Megatrends der digitalen IT

Geesa Theessen und Kerstin Urban

Megatrends werden dem Zukunftsforscher John Naisbitt nach durch eine bis zu Jahrzehnte lang anhaltende Wirkung und eine nachhaltige Beeinflussung ganzer Kulturen charakterisiert. Bei der Suche nach Trends im Bereich der digitalen Informationstechnik (IT) werden im allgemeinen die Entwicklungen von Hard- und Software betrachtet, die für die Informations- und Datenverarbeitung benötigt werden. Hier geht es nur um digitale IT, da analoge IT zwar denkbar, jedoch nicht für Trends im betrachteten Zeithorizont relevant.

Many self-proclaimed visionaries spread across different media (eg books, magazines, Web, TV) forecasts for IT megatrends. Doubtful, however, individual qualifications and credibility of such persons. Nevertheless, individuals can be used as good sources of information that have distinguished themselves by making contributions and scientific work. One example is Ray Kurzweil, who was named one of the most important visionaries in the field of artificial intelligence with the U.S. National Medal of Technology. He sees the occurrence of "technological singularity" requires, in the course of which the mental capacity of people can not keep up with technological advances will.

There have emerged in researching some mega trends that will continue, according to expert opinions in the field of IT. First, the basic miniaturization and increased performance is mentioned. So shall "Moore's Law," another 10 to 20 years are considered, since the transition from micro to nanotechnology, a new S-curve and that new potential can be achieved. Continue to increase the use of embedded technologies that are perceived by the user that is not such, but only realize its benefits (such as airbag in clothing, self-dimming mirror in the car). Here is a sophisticated sensor and actuator is essential that efficient and with the trend of strong performance, accompanied flexible software. The latter should be accompanied with the hardware development in order to not become a limiting factor. The trend to develop multi-touch devices (such as Microsoft Surface computing, Apple iPhone) is to be able to afford also depends on advanced software to the desired user experience. Furthermore, will continue the trend of increasing cross-linking: while the percentage of those in Germany who use the Internet, increased within the last 10 years from 7 to about 75% more, yet to be achieved a rate of nearly 100%. This increases the number of broadband connections and there is a tendency to "Evernet (anytime, anywhere, wireless).

this come in using the Internet more and more multi-media applications and content for use can be made locally by all users (Web 2.0). Finally, there is also the globalization trend will by itself not only dependent on IT, but conversely, many countries make an essential contribution to IT innovation. This social networking a manifestation of this trend (such as facebook.com, studivz.net etc.). Straight from investment companies can take advantage in the IT sector, such as in supply chain management.

summary can a priority the development of software and networks, and a trend towards increasing acceptance of this new technology are expected by the population. It is often questioned whether the users are able to exploit the potentials. However, this is not strictly necessary, since only the specific needs of as many persons are to be met. Here, the complexity of the technology remain behind a sophisticated user interface hidden. New techniques now provide is an inevitability, the training time it takes for the man, now could be the factor inhibiting the proliferation rate.

How many members of society participate in the use of new technologies depends both on the age, the personal skills and financial resources from, and on the importance of technology in the considered culture. While IT is valued in India for example, particularly in state issues, it leads elsewhere to ensure that benefits of specialization are repealed. In the service economy in this context, paradoxically, many services performed by any self again.

When advancing technological development - especially in this respect more risk-averse population, as in Germany - often doubted the controllability of technology in the future. This involves not only the idea of \u200b\u200bartificial intelligence that is independent, but first and technical capabilities that are not monitored constantly by people (such as subways without drivers) as well as to security and privacy. The development of the Internet proves, that this example, the use of the network and the design of the contents can not be checked (nor should).

need for the adoption of new techniques, opportunities and risks are weighed against each other in order to tap the potential of worked out mega trends without completely relying on technical solutions in each case.