Geesa Theessen und Kerstin Urban
Megatrends werden dem Zukunftsforscher John Naisbitt nach durch eine bis zu Jahrzehnte lang anhaltende Wirkung und eine nachhaltige Beeinflussung ganzer Kulturen charakterisiert. Bei der Suche nach Trends im Bereich der digitalen Informationstechnik (IT) werden im allgemeinen die Entwicklungen von Hard- und Software betrachtet, die für die Informations- und Datenverarbeitung benötigt werden. Hier geht es nur um digitale IT, da analoge IT zwar denkbar, jedoch nicht für Trends im betrachteten Zeithorizont relevant.
Many self-proclaimed visionaries spread across different media (eg books, magazines, Web, TV) forecasts for IT megatrends. Doubtful, however, individual qualifications and credibility of such persons. Nevertheless, individuals can be used as good sources of information that have distinguished themselves by making contributions and scientific work. One example is Ray Kurzweil, who was named one of the most important visionaries in the field of artificial intelligence with the U.S. National Medal of Technology. He sees the occurrence of "technological singularity" requires, in the course of which the mental capacity of people can not keep up with technological advances will.
There have emerged in researching some mega trends that will continue, according to expert opinions in the field of IT. First, the basic miniaturization and increased performance is mentioned. So shall "Moore's Law," another 10 to 20 years are considered, since the transition from micro to nanotechnology, a new S-curve and that new potential can be achieved. Continue to increase the use of embedded technologies that are perceived by the user that is not such, but only realize its benefits (such as airbag in clothing, self-dimming mirror in the car). Here is a sophisticated sensor and actuator is essential that efficient and with the trend of strong performance, accompanied flexible software. The latter should be accompanied with the hardware development in order to not become a limiting factor. The trend to develop multi-touch devices (such as Microsoft Surface computing, Apple iPhone) is to be able to afford also depends on advanced software to the desired user experience. Furthermore, will continue the trend of increasing cross-linking: while the percentage of those in Germany who use the Internet, increased within the last 10 years from 7 to about 75% more, yet to be achieved a rate of nearly 100%. This increases the number of broadband connections and there is a tendency to "Evernet (anytime, anywhere, wireless).
this come in using the Internet more and more multi-media applications and content for use can be made locally by all users (Web 2.0). Finally, there is also the globalization trend will by itself not only dependent on IT, but conversely, many countries make an essential contribution to IT innovation. This social networking a manifestation of this trend (such as facebook.com, studivz.net etc.). Straight from investment companies can take advantage in the IT sector, such as in supply chain management.
summary can a priority the development of software and networks, and a trend towards increasing acceptance of this new technology are expected by the population. It is often questioned whether the users are able to exploit the potentials. However, this is not strictly necessary, since only the specific needs of as many persons are to be met. Here, the complexity of the technology remain behind a sophisticated user interface hidden. New techniques now provide is an inevitability, the training time it takes for the man, now could be the factor inhibiting the proliferation rate.
How many members of society participate in the use of new technologies depends both on the age, the personal skills and financial resources from, and on the importance of technology in the considered culture. While IT is valued in India for example, particularly in state issues, it leads elsewhere to ensure that benefits of specialization are repealed. In the service economy in this context, paradoxically, many services performed by any self again.
When advancing technological development - especially in this respect more risk-averse population, as in Germany - often doubted the controllability of technology in the future. This involves not only the idea of \u200b\u200bartificial intelligence that is independent, but first and technical capabilities that are not monitored constantly by people (such as subways without drivers) as well as to security and privacy. The development of the Internet proves, that this example, the use of the network and the design of the contents can not be checked (nor should).
need for the adoption of new techniques, opportunities and risks are weighed against each other in order to tap the potential of worked out mega trends without completely relying on technical solutions in each case.
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