The household is to be considered in two senses: on the one hand, it represents a unit with the environment (other households, businesses, government) in interaction occurs, on the other hand, it is to be regarded from an economic point of view as one of the last links of the supply chain. Thus, the value increases towards the use of products within the supply chain until they reach as resources in the internal transformation in the household. Overall, the budget should not be considered in isolation, therefore, when it comes to the effects of the 2020 mega-trends is acting on it.
are first considered in an assessment of possible developments, changes in the environment with. Here contribute to a large extent, the previously observed trends of the digital mega IT, during the development of institutions plays a role and demographic change is of great importance. Thus, for example, the population of Germany in 2020 reduced to less than 80 million and then continue to follow a negative trend. It will come according to estimates by the Census Bureau to change the budget structure to increase by the number of one-and two-person households by more than 10%, while larger households are less common.
As a fundamental approach to an assessment of possible developments may Kontratjew cycles are used. These so-called "long waves of economic activity" can also be applied to the technical area and promise a continuation of the current period of increasing IT penetration and integration. Also be identified with a view of the household including using scenario analysis and Delphi forecasts of future developments. Here it comes, but usually to a focus on the budget as part of his environment, while upstream areas and links with the supply chain are ignored. This leads to a delineation of the main fields of housing, jobs, health care and mobility.
A broader view allows for the expectation that there will be an enforcement of the environment with computers ("Ubiquitous Computing"), which implies intelligent living environments are embedded in the public networks. The budget will be offered products that tend to have a high degree of processing and - ideally - also have a high quality product.
regards the application of new technologies, it has not (eg in the case of RFID) has shown that these are first in the industry and spread later to pass into the private sector. Reasons for this delay could be that the Budgets have fewer financial resources for early adoption has not so specialized that a technology is worth up early and are necessary for the formation of the necessary human capital is expensive. This cost-benefit ratio is improved by the effect of decreasing average costs at a later date for the budget. With inclusion of the development of an evolving workplace of several household members could be expected an easier entry of new technologies in the private household, since even more necessary human capital is available. That pushed back
by increased use of IT in the private sector, the social component is, can not be safely assumed, as these technologies are not always as a substitute, but often act as a complement (eg SMS). The added value of the budget is created by new technologies (including information service, time savings) should be considered in each case in terms of scarcity of resources (attention, time, financial resources). The decision for or against the adoption of new technologies will be preceded by so weigh the benefits and costs, which go far beyond the direct costs of the product but also its ease of use (intuitive use), security and other components. This is associated with the characteristics the user (eg age, technology aversion, familiarity with technology).
To turn to look at the connection point between the budget and supply chain are expected at this point interactions: not only are the manufacturers of products have an influence on the budget, but also the households themselves and their specific characteristics will influence the value chain. For example, in the context of demographic changes resulting changes in population structure drawing new requirements on an industry. Here, for example, the field of community canteens and nursing homes should be mentioned, and packaging sizes, logistics, store opening times etc. The more Kosumentensouveränität is provided, the more likely it is assumed that control the needs of households with the production, rather than be dependent in their preferences from the offer.
0 comments:
Post a Comment