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A&E Forschung 2020

Annika Hartleben, Corinna Müller

Bis zum Jahr 2020 wird die Weltbevölkerung voraussichtlich auf 7,7 Mrd. Menschen anwachsen (United Nations Population Division). Dementsprechend wird sich der Nahrungsmittelbedarf in den kommenden Jahren stark erhöhen. Vor allem in den Entwicklungsländern It will be an increase in food demand. This is not solely due to the growing population, but due to continued rising incomes that allow people to consume high quality food. The rising demand for food are less and less arable land and grazing areas are available, so that a production increase will be achieved primarily through increasing yields must.

this purpose, the agricultural research make an important contribution, for example through genome research in plant breeding. It is primarily a matter of income and quality or to increase and improve resistance characteristics, including exposure to heat, drought and pathogens. Especially the first two properties will gain in the course of a projected global warming more important, especially in Africa, where there will be even stronger droughts. An example of the plant genome research is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research supported the project GABI (Genome analysis in the plant biological system), in which eight plant genomes are examined with a model and the results can be later transferred to other plants.

Another research field is the field of bioenergy, as energy demand rising, fossil fuels will always scarce. With biofuels contributing to climate change, the CO 2 emissions. In this area, however, competes for the scarce agricultural land, as it can be used one hand to food security and on the other hand, the cultivation of energy crops.

heard Internationally, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) to the major research institutions. It is an alliance of states, international and regional organizations and private foundations. Their public research is not used for commercial purposes and also financed solely by member countries. The CGIAR supports 15 agricultural research centers worldwide, including the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). which strives for his project "Vision 2020" a sustainable global food security.

Further information technologies who have a significant contribution to agricultural research, as they are the interface between biological systems and technical processes. The following points provide the key features of information technology in agricultural research again

1) data collection (eg by using sensors)

2) data storage

3) data representation, eg in the form of graphics and animations

4) data management (analysis, simulation)

5) communication (Internet, online journals)

6) Metaforschung

may be available information to make better use through information technologies, such as research centers worldwide can communicate with each other via Internet, telephone and others and can also save the received information, in their research incorporate, which may in turn lead to saving time and money.

If it is not in any direct communication between the researchers will or may occur, these also have the opportunity to obtain information from the Internet, occurring not always a high quality is guaranteed. This is problematic in the context that can not be understood in principle, which author has published the respective article. As an indicator of the quality, the Zitierrate be used. It is expected that an article will be cited if he is found by readers as well

The trend of online journals as a source of information will be continued, because the access and availability are simplified further and further. Magazine vendors who charge for their online-Artikel/-Zeitschriften a high price to be but because of the wealth of information in the Internet voraussichtlich nicht lange halten können.

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Internationaler Handel mit Lebensmitteln 2020

Annika Hartleben und Corina Müller

Das weltweit steigende Handelsvolumen im Bereich Lebensmittel (2000: 295 Mio.$, 2005: 465 Mio.$) lässt sich auf verschiedene Ursachen zurückführen. Hauptgründe liegen vor allem im Wandel der Entwicklungsländer, die bedingt durch den wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt, auch westliche Essgewohnheiten übernehmen. Besonders im asiatischen Raum nimmt die Nachfrage nach Fleisch und Milch stetig zu. Dieser Trend wird voraussichtlich anhalten, denn der Anstieg der Weltbevölkerung auf ca. 7,7 Mrd. Menschen bis zum Jahr 2020 will be mainly due to the developing countries.

Using a baseline forecast model (IMPACT) of the International Food Policy Research Institute, may include different variables (regions, commodity groups, constructed competitive market, etc.), the following scenarios for 2020 are derived: the grain demand rises by 47% (557 million tonnes) in developing countries. Much of the increase can be recorded, especially in Asia (52%), of which China and India take over half the crowd. Neither is the most significant increase in meat and feed grain in developing countries. Especially in East Asia, especially China, is the nachgefragte Menge bis 2020 auf ca. 110 Mio.t Fleisch und 240 Mio.t Futtergetreide verdoppeln. Weitere bedeutende Anstiege lassen sich im Lateinamerikanischen Raum sowie in Nordafrika/Westasien beobachten.

Der internationale Handel mit Lebensmitteln verlagert sich zunehmend auf elektronische Marktplätze. Die weltweite Verbreitung und Nutzung des e-trades führt zur Senkung der Transaktionskosten, wenn die entsprechenden Voraussetzungen, e-readiness, e-trade-strategy und e-competence, dafür erfüllt sind. Bedeutende Einsparungen werden unter anderem durch die erleichterte Kommunikation, via Internet, und durch die Senkung des Verwaltungsaufwands erreicht, da Daten elektronisch übermittelt und bearbeitet werden können. Weiterhin rationalizations lead in delivery and transport chains to save transaction costs because processes can be optimized. Furthermore, using especially small businesses and companies from developing countries to place in the international market of e-trade permits. The barriers to participate in international trade are much lower and, in particular finding suitable partners easier. For example, German and foreign companies on the homepage of e-trade-center offer products and services or to ask and then build long-term business relationships.

The conditions of international trade are expected to increasing quality awareness of consumers increase. The traceability of products and information on food safety, such as HACCP win, therefore increasingly important. In particular, for homogeneous goods, the visual impact allows no conclusion on the quality, are de trust properties in focus. Therefore, the requirements of information to take with the number of substitutes, since the consumer will always choose the product with the highest transparency. In the long term can lead too much required amounts of data and information in turn to tariff barriers and countries close by lesser means access to the market.

Lebensmittelskandale stellen einen weiteren Faktor dar, der den Informationsbedarf erhöht und Verbraucher aktiv nach Qualitätsmerkmalen suchen lässt. Skandale „geringen“ Ausmaßes zeigen sich bereits als Folge von Grenzwertüberschreitungen, z.B. bei Höchstwerten für Pestizidrückstände auf Weintrauben. Einen wichtigen Bestandteil des internationalen Lebensmittelhandels stellen daher definierte Standards und die Einhaltung von Qualitätsprüfungen dar, die durch den Einsatz spezieller Messgeräte garantiert werden. Das kann wiederum ein Hemmnis für Entwicklungsländer und kleine Unternehmen bedeuten, wenn die technische Ausstattung bzw. das notwendige Kapital zur Qualitätsprüfung nicht vorhanden is.

Rising meat and cereal demand in 2020 may be associated with price increases, since the capacity of the Western countries are relatively limited. In return, a price increase would in turn result in a production incentive. Taking into account the developing countries, however, can still suggest a large potential for meat and cereal production. If the existing capacities would be used in accordance with the circumstances well, even large increases in volume would be expected without substantial price increases: it has been even more falling prices. The importance of the food trade shows in turn to provide the required goods am richtigen Ort, wobei der e-trade die Erstellung optimaler Lieferströme umsetzen kann.

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Der Landwirtschaftliche Betrieb in Europa 2020

Geesa Theessen und Kerstin Urban

Aus den Veränderungen der Rahmenbedingungen der Landwirtschaft ergeben sich neue Anforderungen, aus denen die zukünftige Entwicklung und Verbreitung von IT in der Landwirtschaft abgeleitet werden kann.

In Bezug auf die Veränderung der Rahmenbedingungen der Landwirtschaft in Europa veröffentlichte die europäische Kommission im Jahr 2006 eine Szenarioanalyse „Scenar 2020“, in der 3 verschiedene Szenarien kreiert wurden ( Baseline Scenario, Regionalisation Scenario, Liberalisation Scenario ). On 1st Scenario it is assumed that there would be no change of direction in European policy. The other two scenarios, however, is a regionalization assumed or from a liberalization policy. The influencing factors can be divided into political influence ( agricultural policy, environmental policy, WTO) and the change of social environment ( population growth, economic development, consumer preferences, environmental conditions ). According to the European Commission, the population figures in the EU will largely remain constant. In the other areas of the social environment, the trends of past years will continue . Stop In the area of \u200b\u200bconsumer preferences, this means that demand will increase for high-quality products and greater security further, the demand for organically produced products is rising.

from the increased demand for food safety and numerous rules and regulations of the European Commission to ensure the traceability of food, a higher demand for information resulting from the production chain. In the field of organic products it is necessary that information production and processing are provided in order to gain the trust of consumers. So that the necessary information can be provided is an ongoing and detailed Data collection from producer to consumer need. to the absence of accurate data for each animal, the amount of information increases dramatically. This requires an automated data collection using sensor technology and image recognition.

required on the process level, the increasing farm size automation of production processes in order to relieve the farmer.

order the existing price pressure term, to be produced cheaply and efficiently. Therefore must be planned efficiently at the operating level, the use of available inputs, which is a new challenge for management that supports using appropriate software could be.

are widespread today, the individual animal identification, acreage index and agricultural mobile computers, the Internet is increasingly being used to obtain information and in e-government. Too much has already been developed in the field of automatic data collection (eg OPTISORT), automation has been in production processes (eg, milking robots) and software in support of management (MIS) is already much developed (Precision Farming), however, the penetration rates low.

What's missing is a network of systems so that data exchanges between systems is possible, for example, between the automatic data capture and automated production processes. To enable this, further work on a unified data format so that a smooth flow of data related to the food industry instead. and the unified data format so that the flow of information between the systems work and the farmer to the food industry.

line represents the non-existent systems interoperability an inhibiting factor in the spread of IT in agriculture dar. The acquisition of individual systems that are not compatible, is no great advantage dar. Add to this that much time invested in learning the technique be. Embedded technologies and Surface computing here in Zukunft Abhilfe schaffen. Eine weitere hemmende soziale Institution ist der Familienbetrieb, der verhindert, dass hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte eingestellt werden, die den Einzug neuer IT fördern würden. Denkbar wäre es allerdings, dass durch den Einzug von IT, beispielsweise automatischer Datenerfassung, das Vertrauen in Kooperationspartner steigt, da die asymmetrische Information reduziert wird. Dadurch könnten neue Kooperationen zwischen den Landwirten gefördert werden, was zu einem schnelleren Einzug neuer Technik führen könnte.

	Prozess IT	IT + Person	Vernetzte IT
Prozess- ebene	Bsp.: Fütterungs- automaten Eingebettete Technologien	GPS gesteuerte Fahrzeuge Surface Computing	Steigende Vernetzung
Betriebs- ebene	Embedded technologies	MIS Surface Computing	Increasing networking
party chain	Embedded technologies	Surface Computing	Increasing networking RFID chips
State			E-Government

Fig.1 Existing systems in different areas and promoting factors

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