Annika Hartleben, Corina Müller
In Zeiten schnellen Wandels ist es für Unternehmen wichtiger denn je, Trends frühzeitig zu erkennen und entsprechende Handlungsweisen daraus abzuleiten. Im Folgenden werden Methoden zur Trendanalyse im Unternehmen erläutert und kritisch hinsichtlich unseres Beobachtungszeitraums bis 2020 reflektiert.
Grundsätzlich wird ein Trend als Entwicklungs-/Grundrichtung definiert (Brockhaus). Als Analyse wird die systematische Untersuchung bezeichnet, bei der das Objekt in seine Bestandteile zerlegt wird (Wikipedia). Daraus folgt, dass Trendanalysen langfristige Entwicklungen identifizieren und beschreiben.
In Abhängigkeit von ihrer Dauer und Bedeutung lassen sich Trends in verschiedene Kategorien einordnen: Universelle Trends bzw. grundsätzliche Strömungen, wie z.B. das Christentum, werden als Metatrends eingeordnet. Dagegen gehören epochale Veränderungen in ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Systemen der Kategorie Megatrends an. Beispiele dafür sind Globalisierung und erhöhtes Gesundheitsbewusstsein. The area of \u200b\u200bsocio-cultural trends, which includes among other religions, is being highlighted by the timeliness of Islam. Changes that affect both the social behavior and the purchase and consumption behavior, such as the cocooning belong in the category of consumer trends. Fashion trends are characterized by a particularly short life cycle (mini, pants). The featured categories are, however, closely linked and there are fluid.
A method for the detection of trends is the observation of past data, called time series. Is it possible to identify a trend within the data, this can in the future are updated. Turning off cyclical and periodic fluctuations and irregular fluctuations residual trends can be easily detected. Possible trend curve in its course forms can be seasonal, inter alia, linear, logistic or exponential.
The time series analysis is usually used for a period of up to 3 years and therefore is not for a long-term forecast to 2020 suitable.
The company, the trend analysis are used both externally and internally. Externally, it is about the detection of changes in consumer preferences (convenience food), innovation (GPS) and market conditions (price increase of milk products in 2007). Consequently, the adjustment will take place in the portfolio (the sum of the products and services) and marketing strategy to the actual trends. This is important so the company can secure a competitive advantage in the market. A concrete approach from a first identification to implementation consists of four steps: First, trends are recognized, ie, what changes can be observed? This is followed by the filtering of trends, the most important developments are recorded in relation to the company. The next step is to assess what trends can be used in concrete, also with regard to suppliers and partners. Finally, decide which idea seems most profitable and will be implemented then.
Within the company is used to analyze trends and project monitoring. One possible form is the milestone trend analysis. As in this case as a milestone in the advance ambitious intermediate result is called, that should that be achieved at a fixed date of a certain project status. By comparison with the last milestone, the project's progress can be determined. Furthermore, can be identified time and cost overruns early and appropriate action is taken.
Like the above-mentioned method, these considerations used for a period of two to three years.
To conclude that the trend analysis is an important tool for the company to strengthen competitiveness. The proposed methods are suitable because of its too short time horizon, however, not to a forecast for 2020th
In the agri-food industry to make the following significant trends: Moore's Law (doubling of transistor density on a microprocessor every 18 - 24 months), ever-increasing concentration in food retailing, the increasing automation of machinery, growing demand for food (By the ever increasing world population) and globalization of supply networks. For the long-term implementation of these trends, a high energy demand is expected, so alternative energy sources will become increasingly important.
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