Geesa Theessen, Keith Urban
To remain competitive today, companies must bring a newer and better technologies to market. Thus, the limited available resources can be optimally invested in the development of new products, it is necessary that even before the potential of new technology and to achieve the maximum necessary research and development expenses (R & D expenditures) are known. Such forward-looking statements, with the assistance of the S-curve concept can be predicted in advance. This describes McKinsey's approach in the 60 developed the relationship between R & D expenses and the performance of a technology. Alternatively, the time and the volumes are removed.
clear from the context, in reality, usually an S-shaped curve, which can be divided into 3 phases ( childhood, explosion and maturity). The first phase is characterized by high Investments that will lead only to a slight increase in performance of the technology. Just the duration of one phase, must be paid in such large investments, is often underestimated in practice. The problem in the phase of childhood is that high uncertainty about the potential of new technology and that it is still unclear whether the technology will ever reach the market. Once the key knowledge of a technology is developed can be achieved with relatively low R & D cost and in relatively short time, large performance gains. If the turning point of the curve is reached, should be sought for new technologies, as its reach in the near future, the maturity phase , Is in the performance gains only possible with very high R & D expenses will be and the existing technology approaches a limit.
An S-shaped curve is present for example in the development and dissemination of screens. The cathode ray tube was developed in 1897, but was used until 1926 as a screen television sets. In subsequent years, the increasingly popular television faster and the quality of the image transmission has increased. It was now possible, moving images in different colors represent. In the '50s came the added use as a computer screen. Today, the technology of the CRT monitor at its limit reached and will be replaced by the flat panel display technology based on liquid crystal (Source: www.wikipedia.de ). Thus, the leap to a new S-curve has been completed.
How to set the example shown, it is difficult to label the coordinates set. On the abscissa is the one of R & D expenditures but also the time to be removed. It is also difficult to commit to a performance variable.
The biggest problem is that the curve is already in the 1 Phase must be clear in order to use the S-curve concept useful as a prognostic means may. consists precisely in this phase aber eine große Unsicherheit über das Potential der neuen Technologie und es ist unklar, ob die Technologie die Marktreife überhaupt erreichen wird oder ob der Durchbruch nicht gelingt. Höcherl geht davon aus, dass die maximale Leistungsfähigkeit einer Technologie leicht geschätzt werden kann und das wenige Punkte (in etwa 3) ausreichen um den Kurvenverlauf bereits in der ersten Phase vorhersagen zu können (vgl. I. Höcherl: “Das S-Kurven-Konzept im Technologiemanagement“, 2001).
Empirische Befunde zeigen, dass sich die Innovationszyklen immer weiter verkürzen. Dies bedeutet für Unternehmen, dass höhere Kosten für die Forschung und Entwicklung und höhere Switching costs incurred. Consequently, the innovation cycles are shortening only so far that the R & D costs will continue to be covered. Another limiting factor in the growth rate of technology will also be the human capacity and the demand for innovative products. In the field of computer software development by a too low degree of competition and market concentration is attenuated. However, it remains questionable whether, without the monopolistic position of Microsoft in general the present high level would have been achieved.
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