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Szenarioanalyse

Ritu Gulati, Kristine Herkstr Oeter and Katja Kana pin

The scenario analysis has its origins in the military imperious area. To the martial skills to train emergency, have Militärsp ezialisten scenarios of possible Kriegsk designed onstellationen and success event determined ource strategies.

In entrepreneurial field was the scenario analysis by first in the 70s. Distr laggebend it was the oil crisis in 1973.

esem In Di Together hang scenarios are not predictions nor Prophezeiu nts, which are based on the administration of prophets. Scenarios is formulated to fields, hypothetical Scheme visions of socio-economic problem . These take into account possible development opportunities many alternative development and developed systematically. Their origin is TRAINING comprehensible to others. These scenarios include both qualitative Au ch quantitative statements about futures and serve de r orientation and the Decision-makers idungsvo rbereitung.

Scenario analysis itself is a planning instrument . The purpose of this future term trends are pointed . Three basic types of scenarios can been developed. This is it is the positive extreme scenario. This the best possible future Developme modeled subsided and describes a positively valued Zukunftszu stand, dessen tatsächliche Realisierung unwahrscheinlich aber niemals unmöglich sein darf.

Das negative Extrem-Szenario stellt den zweiten Grundtyp dar. Mit diesem soll die schlechtmöglichste Zukunftssi tuation modelliert werden. Es handelt sich dabei um einen negativ bewertete n Extremzu stand. Für diesen gilt, dass er unwahr scheinlich, aber nicht unmöglich sein darf.

Bei dem dritten Grundtypen handelt es sich um das so genannte Trendsze scenario. This guy writes today, current situation in the e future continues. The future, the model is so FOURTH could also "extended ngerte " call the present.

with de m scenario funnel can be shown Grundt ypes. The Schnittf AREA OF of the funnel on Bezugsh Orizont (for example, the 2020 ) contains all possible developments Gen. These contain the one of the T during the positive and the negative extreme scenario. The path from the B is the presence reached scenario does not gnisse linear but is characterized by Störerei . The following figure shows the scenario funnel. In kurzfri term future speaks of five to ten years , medium-term future eleven to twenty years and long-term future of 20 years.

( http://lehrerfortbildung-bw.de/kompetenzen/projektkompetenz/
methoden_a_z/szenario/startseite/image002.gif)

The scenario analysis as an objective regarding the collection and structuring of information of a problem. Likewise, the temporal evolution tracked important factors and their implications are examined for interesting scenarios. All this serves to better assess opportunities and risks.

To reach the goal, one divides the scenario analysis, often in four steps.

first Analysis: It will take place the limitation of the research object, ie the definition and structuring the specific area of \u200b\u200bthe scenario analysis.

second projection: In the second step, measures adopted to describe. Likewise, trends are established for these indicators. Disturbances are included. From the trends and the disturbances can create different scenarios as development options.

third evaluation: This step means there are several alternative future possibilities. This Rohszenarien be prepared so that the previously identified Target group to be understood.

4th The last step is the achievement: it is chosen for a scenario with the appropriate path. Takes into account the lessons learned.

scenarios can be distinguished also by various action and responsibility.

- business scenarios: By including critical scenarios companies recognize the indicators are.

- energy scenarios: The energy scenarios is mainly a question to the fore: how long the currently known stocks of non-renewable resource ranges under different constraints.

- industry scenarios: the relevant knowledge on markets, industries and environmental factors is usually present in the company. Here it comes out to figure out on what future forms a selected industry prepare .

- world scenarios: In the current discussion of global scenarios currently most frequently asked question: What factors contribute to how the global climate?

We see that this method can not be limited to enterprise scenarios.

also commonly future developments, such as world energy scenarios or scenarios can be determined.

Conclusion:

Die Methode zeigt sowohl Vor- als auch Nachteile. Dafür spricht, dass der Hintergrund der Entscheidungsverantwortlichen erweitert wird. Ebenso ist diese Methode, wie vorher schon beschrieben, vielseitig einsetzbar. Die Methode zeigt nicht nur die „Zukunft“, sondern auch einen möglichen Weg dorthin.

Jedoch ist diese Methode mit einem hohen Aufwand verbunden und zudem sind wenig quantitative Aussagen möglich.

Aufgrund der Komplexität können aber auch Fehler auftreten. Obwohl Störvariablen berücksichtigt werden this method from exogenous shocks, such as the 11th September or world war, not "safe".

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Globalisierung im Agribusiness

Katja Kanapin, Ritu Gulati, Kristine Herkströter

globalization is today a much-used buzzword and triggers different reactions. On the one hand, this term associated expectations in terms of global prosperity and progress. On the other hand, it causes anxiety, particularly unemployment and cuts in social services, from environmental destruction and a world unified culture.

What is Agribusiness?

"Agribusiness or agribusiness called Anglicism (from the English word" agriculture "and" business ") next to agriculture in the upstream and downstream economic activities. Together they form a value chain "(http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/agribusiness, Stand: 01.12.07)

." Agribusiness includes the agricultural sector, and all upstream and downstream industrial and service sectors. "(http://agrar.uni-hohenheim.de, Stand: 01.12.07)

These definitions reflect what is globalization.

"Globalization is the process of increasing global interdependence in all areas (economy, culture, environment, communication, etc.). This intensification occurs at the level of individuals, companies, institutions and states. "(Http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/globalisierung, as of 01:12:07)

" Globalization is changing the world economy understood, leading to more cross-border transactions. In the cultural and social areas there is a globalization. " (Http://www.globalisierung-info.de/definition.html, as of 01:12:07)

Several causes lead to globalization.

1. Technical progress has reduced the transportation and communication costs.
2. progress in the liberalization of international goods and services exchange through GATT rounds and trade agreements. Sun industrial tariffs to below 10 percent have been reduced. Worldwide, it has reduced financial market regulations, so that exchange rates and interest rates can now develop more market-oriented than before. Advances in technology have combined with the liberalization Created increased opportunity for companies to operate in international markets.
3. carry as much political events to this. The disappearance of the Soviet bloc allowed economic activities with the Eastern European countries.

globalization leads to significant changes in the global economy. Markets are merging to become larger.

episodes occur in different areas. The globalization of the labor market is no longer regional, but limited global. The result is an enormous increase in labor supply. The labor is cheaper in many areas of the world als in Westeuropa. ( à Billiglohnländer)

Auf dem Gütermarkt führt Globalisierung zu einem größeren Angebot und zu niedrigeren Preisen. Oft können Firmen in den Industrieländern dem Druck nicht mehr standhalten und müssen ihr Handeln anpassen und wandern in Billiglohnländern ab.

Die Gefahr für die Umwelt geht mit dem Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft einher. Schwellenländer ist die Notwendigkeit von Umweltschutz noch unbekannt, bzw. ordnen diesem eine untergeordnete Bedeutung zu.

Die Globalisierung hat auch den Agrarbereich erreicht. Besonders bei verarbeiteten Lebensmitteln. Produktdifferenzierung, sinkende Durchschnittskosten production and the desire of the imperfect competition cause. companies have the opportunity to invest in other countries, lower transportation and communication costs make it cost effective. In addition, demand from consumers, such as coffee, fresh fruit, vegetables and other products at any time available.

In the field of ocean freight costs fell by 65%. The cost of air transportation decreased significantly. Similarly, the costs fell dramatically for telecommunications. Communication in 2005 was more affordable than ever before.

These savings allow companies and promote a simple and inexpensive "(Together) work" with the or abroad.

in the use of computers and appropriate software can be concluded that almost all the training facilities in Baden-Württemberg is already using a computer, 70% of them have more than 10 years, are provided. 60% of the companies even have multiple computers. The spreadsheet takes a high application. Graphics programs and databases play in comparison, a relatively minor role.

Looking at the Internet use it is found that this is mainly used for the Internet care as well as for communication. The Internet use for the conduct of business is playing with 70% of farms a major role.

The extent of globalization can be seen from the importance of direct investment and trade.

Globalisation brings both advantages and disadvantages.

Globalization provides the opportunity to conduct international trade. Countries and regions now have better opportunities to sell their products and promote the development of the economy. This multi-prosperity. For consumers, there are also quite personal, tangible benefits: You can buy fresh fruit throughout the year, there are coffee and tea. The world is a result of air traffic moved closer together and there is the opportunity to travel the world or anywhere in the world, because of communications technology to make phone calls or use other techniques.

However, globalization also has its dark side. Globalization demand on the adaptability of many people. Workers and entrepreneurs do not make it accessible not to adapt, or them is difficult.

To conclude that it is globalization a process and not a state that is favored by several factors.

Even the agricultural sector is affected. Mechanization of Betriebe, geringere Zölle und anderes. Die Globalisierung bringt sowohl Vor- als auch Nachteile mit sich. Es ist ein Prozess, der weiterhin anhalten wird.

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Megatrends der digitalen IT

Geesa Theessen und Kerstin Urban

Megatrends werden dem Zukunftsforscher John Naisbitt nach durch eine bis zu Jahrzehnte lang anhaltende Wirkung und eine nachhaltige Beeinflussung ganzer Kulturen charakterisiert. Bei der Suche nach Trends im Bereich der digitalen Informationstechnik (IT) werden im allgemeinen die Entwicklungen von Hard- und Software betrachtet, die für die Informations- und Datenverarbeitung benötigt werden. Hier geht es nur um digitale IT, da analoge IT zwar denkbar, jedoch nicht für Trends im betrachteten Zeithorizont relevant.

Many self-proclaimed visionaries spread across different media (eg books, magazines, Web, TV) forecasts for IT megatrends. Doubtful, however, individual qualifications and credibility of such persons. Nevertheless, individuals can be used as good sources of information that have distinguished themselves by making contributions and scientific work. One example is Ray Kurzweil, who was named one of the most important visionaries in the field of artificial intelligence with the U.S. National Medal of Technology. He sees the occurrence of "technological singularity" requires, in the course of which the mental capacity of people can not keep up with technological advances will.

There have emerged in researching some mega trends that will continue, according to expert opinions in the field of IT. First, the basic miniaturization and increased performance is mentioned. So shall "Moore's Law," another 10 to 20 years are considered, since the transition from micro to nanotechnology, a new S-curve and that new potential can be achieved. Continue to increase the use of embedded technologies that are perceived by the user that is not such, but only realize its benefits (such as airbag in clothing, self-dimming mirror in the car). Here is a sophisticated sensor and actuator is essential that efficient and with the trend of strong performance, accompanied flexible software. The latter should be accompanied with the hardware development in order to not become a limiting factor. The trend to develop multi-touch devices (such as Microsoft Surface computing, Apple iPhone) is to be able to afford also depends on advanced software to the desired user experience. Furthermore, will continue the trend of increasing cross-linking: while the percentage of those in Germany who use the Internet, increased within the last 10 years from 7 to about 75% more, yet to be achieved a rate of nearly 100%. This increases the number of broadband connections and there is a tendency to "Evernet (anytime, anywhere, wireless).

this come in using the Internet more and more multi-media applications and content for use can be made locally by all users (Web 2.0). Finally, there is also the globalization trend will by itself not only dependent on IT, but conversely, many countries make an essential contribution to IT innovation. This social networking a manifestation of this trend (such as facebook.com, studivz.net etc.). Straight from investment companies can take advantage in the IT sector, such as in supply chain management.

summary can a priority the development of software and networks, and a trend towards increasing acceptance of this new technology are expected by the population. It is often questioned whether the users are able to exploit the potentials. However, this is not strictly necessary, since only the specific needs of as many persons are to be met. Here, the complexity of the technology remain behind a sophisticated user interface hidden. New techniques now provide is an inevitability, the training time it takes for the man, now could be the factor inhibiting the proliferation rate.

How many members of society participate in the use of new technologies depends both on the age, the personal skills and financial resources from, and on the importance of technology in the considered culture. While IT is valued in India for example, particularly in state issues, it leads elsewhere to ensure that benefits of specialization are repealed. In the service economy in this context, paradoxically, many services performed by any self again.

When advancing technological development - especially in this respect more risk-averse population, as in Germany - often doubted the controllability of technology in the future. This involves not only the idea of \u200b\u200bartificial intelligence that is independent, but first and technical capabilities that are not monitored constantly by people (such as subways without drivers) as well as to security and privacy. The development of the Internet proves, that this example, the use of the network and the design of the contents can not be checked (nor should).

need for the adoption of new techniques, opportunities and risks are weighed against each other in order to tap the potential of worked out mega trends without completely relying on technical solutions in each case.

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Die Delphi-Methode

Stefan Güttler

The Delphi method was developed in the 50s in the USA and owes its name to the "Oracle of Delphi". The Delphi method is a carefully selected group of experts reiterates writing about future events, trends, technical developments and the like interviewed. The anonymous responses of individual participants are summarized after each round of questions and provided to all participants. The controlled feedback of group interaction is maintained and initiated a learning process that will lead to a possible revision of the answers to a more refined result of the study. The aim is to form a consensus opinion. In general, after 3 rounds achieved a sufficient convergence of expert opinion. Should this fail, or at least differences of opinion can be revealed.

finds this formal method of analysis of future problems even then their use when others fail (eg statistical) methods. In addition, they can serve to support other methods to provide information for decision-making process ready.

The Delphi method attempts to exploit the benefits of group discussion and to avoid the disadvantages of such a survey method. This succeeds by three distinguishing features it.

1. anonymity: The individual experts do not know yet who will participate in the study or how the individual assessment of an expert on a specific event. So it falls to the experts to revise their views easily, without losing face. Moreover, the opinion of an individual are not dominated by the opinion of another expert and peer pressure to find a consensus solution, is weakened by the anonymity.
2. Repeated rounds of questions with controlled feedback: received for each question round, the experts, the statistical analysis of previously gone round and summarized comments. This is a learning process for participants anregen und dazu führen, dass die Schätzung durch ein Überdenken und eventuelles Ändern der eigenen Meinung verfeinert wird. Zudem wird durch die Rückmeldung die Interaktion der Gruppe sichergestellt.
3. Statistische Auswertung: Nach jeder Runde können die Einschätzungen der Experten statistisch ausgewertet werden, z.B. durch die Bildung des Medians sowie der oberen und unteren Quartile. Ist der Quartilabstand (Differenz zwischen oberen und unteren Quartil) relativ „eng“, spricht man von einer Konsensmeinung. Ist er dagegen relativ „weit“, bestehen Meinungsverschiedenheiten zwischen den Experten. Aus bisher durchgeführten Delphi studies, the following observations: the relative uncertainty (the ratio of "interquartile range" to forecast period) is fairly constant. The absolute uncertainty is growing, however the length of the forecast period. Is for a single estimate, the relative uncertainty much larger (smaller) than the average relative uncertainty of all questions raised, then the consensus on this point is much smaller (larger) than in the remaining questions.

The advantage of the Delphi method to a single expert opinion can be justified by the Delphi effect werden. Der Delphi-Effekt bezeichnet das Phänomen, dass die gemittelte Meinung einer Masse von gleich kompetenten Beobachtern etwas zuverlässigere Vorhersagen ergibt als die eines einzelnen willkürlich herausgepickten Beobachters.

Die Durchführung einer Delphi-Studie sollte sorgfältig durchdacht werden, um ihrer mangelnden Standardisierung (wie z.B. Auswahl und Anzahl der Teilnehmer, Anzahl der Runden, Design der Rückmeldung, etc.) entgegenzuwirken und so die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer erfolgreichen Durchführung zu erhöhen. Des Weiteren kann der Moderator die Studie verfälschen, in dem er seine eigene Meinung in die Rückmeldungen einbringt (Manipulation).

Mit der Delphi-Methode kann nur eine abgegrenzte Problemstellung betrachtet werden. Die Teilnehmer sind nur auf einem begrenzten Gebiet Experten und können nicht alle möglichen Einflüsse aus anderen Bereichen, bzw. Wechselwirkungen von Ereignissen, prognostizieren.

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Trendanalyse

Annika Hartleben, Corina Müller

In Zeiten schnellen Wandels ist es für Unternehmen wichtiger denn je, Trends frühzeitig zu erkennen und entsprechende Handlungsweisen daraus abzuleiten. Im Folgenden werden Methoden zur Trendanalyse im Unternehmen erläutert und kritisch hinsichtlich unseres Beobachtungszeitraums bis 2020 reflektiert.

Grundsätzlich wird ein Trend als Entwicklungs-/Grundrichtung definiert (Brockhaus). Als Analyse wird die systematische Untersuchung bezeichnet, bei der das Objekt in seine Bestandteile zerlegt wird (Wikipedia). Daraus folgt, dass Trendanalysen langfristige Entwicklungen identifizieren und beschreiben.

In Abhängigkeit von ihrer Dauer und Bedeutung lassen sich Trends in verschiedene Kategorien einordnen: Universelle Trends bzw. grundsätzliche Strömungen, wie z.B. das Christentum, werden als Metatrends eingeordnet. Dagegen gehören epochale Veränderungen in ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Systemen der Kategorie Megatrends an. Beispiele dafür sind Globalisierung und erhöhtes Gesundheitsbewusstsein. The area of \u200b\u200bsocio-cultural trends, which includes among other religions, is being highlighted by the timeliness of Islam. Changes that affect both the social behavior and the purchase and consumption behavior, such as the cocooning belong in the category of consumer trends. Fashion trends are characterized by a particularly short life cycle (mini, pants). The featured categories are, however, closely linked and there are fluid.

A method for the detection of trends is the observation of past data, called time series. Is it possible to identify a trend within the data, this can in the future are updated. Turning off cyclical and periodic fluctuations and irregular fluctuations residual trends can be easily detected. Possible trend curve in its course forms can be seasonal, inter alia, linear, logistic or exponential.

The time series analysis is usually used for a period of up to 3 years and therefore is not for a long-term forecast to 2020 suitable.

The company, the trend analysis are used both externally and internally. Externally, it is about the detection of changes in consumer preferences (convenience food), innovation (GPS) and market conditions (price increase of milk products in 2007). Consequently, the adjustment will take place in the portfolio (the sum of the products and services) and marketing strategy to the actual trends. This is important so the company can secure a competitive advantage in the market. A concrete approach from a first identification to implementation consists of four steps: First, trends are recognized, ie, what changes can be observed? This is followed by the filtering of trends, the most important developments are recorded in relation to the company. The next step is to assess what trends can be used in concrete, also with regard to suppliers and partners. Finally, decide which idea seems most profitable and will be implemented then.

Within the company is used to analyze trends and project monitoring. One possible form is the milestone trend analysis. As in this case as a milestone in the advance ambitious intermediate result is called, that should that be achieved at a fixed date of a certain project status. By comparison with the last milestone, the project's progress can be determined. Furthermore, can be identified time and cost overruns early and appropriate action is taken.

Like the above-mentioned method, these considerations used for a period of two to three years.

To conclude that the trend analysis is an important tool for the company to strengthen competitiveness. The proposed methods are suitable because of its too short time horizon, however, not to a forecast for 2020th

In the agri-food industry to make the following significant trends: Moore's Law (doubling of transistor density on a microprocessor every 18 - 24 months), ever-increasing concentration in food retailing, the increasing automation of machinery, growing demand for food (By the ever increasing world population) and globalization of supply networks. For the long-term implementation of these trends, a high energy demand is expected, so alternative energy sources will become increasingly important.

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Das S-Kurven-Konzept

Geesa Theessen, Keith Urban

To remain competitive today, companies must bring a newer and better technologies to market. Thus, the limited available resources can be optimally invested in the development of new products, it is necessary that even before the potential of new technology and to achieve the maximum necessary research and development expenses (R & D expenditures) are known. Such forward-looking statements, with the assistance of the S-curve concept can be predicted in advance. This describes McKinsey's approach in the 60 developed the relationship between R & D expenses and the performance of a technology. Alternatively, the time and the volumes are removed.

clear from the context, in reality, usually an S-shaped curve, which can be divided into 3 phases ( childhood, explosion and maturity). The first phase is characterized by high Investments that will lead only to a slight increase in performance of the technology. Just the duration of one phase, must be paid in such large investments, is often underestimated in practice. The problem in the phase of childhood is that high uncertainty about the potential of new technology and that it is still unclear whether the technology will ever reach the market. Once the key knowledge of a technology is developed can be achieved with relatively low R & D cost and in relatively short time, large performance gains. If the turning point of the curve is reached, should be sought for new technologies, as its reach in the near future, the maturity phase , Is in the performance gains only possible with very high R & D expenses will be and the existing technology approaches a limit.

An S-shaped curve is present for example in the development and dissemination of screens. The cathode ray tube was developed in 1897, but was used until 1926 as a screen television sets. In subsequent years, the increasingly popular television faster and the quality of the image transmission has increased. It was now possible, moving images in different colors represent. In the '50s came the added use as a computer screen. Today, the technology of the CRT monitor at its limit reached and will be replaced by the flat panel display technology based on liquid crystal (Source: www.wikipedia.de ). Thus, the leap to a new S-curve has been completed.

How to set the example shown, it is difficult to label the coordinates set. On the abscissa is the one of R & D expenditures but also the time to be removed. It is also difficult to commit to a performance variable.

The biggest problem is that the curve is already in the 1 Phase must be clear in order to use the S-curve concept useful as a prognostic means may. consists precisely in this phase aber eine große Unsicherheit über das Potential der neuen Technologie und es ist unklar, ob die Technologie die Marktreife überhaupt erreichen wird oder ob der Durchbruch nicht gelingt. Höcherl geht davon aus, dass die maximale Leistungsfähigkeit einer Technologie leicht geschätzt werden kann und das wenige Punkte (in etwa 3) ausreichen um den Kurvenverlauf bereits in der ersten Phase vorhersagen zu können (vgl. I. Höcherl: “Das S-Kurven-Konzept im Technologiemanagement“, 2001).

Empirische Befunde zeigen, dass sich die Innovationszyklen immer weiter verkürzen. Dies bedeutet für Unternehmen, dass höhere Kosten für die Forschung und Entwicklung und höhere Switching costs incurred. Consequently, the innovation cycles are shortening only so far that the R & D costs will continue to be covered. Another limiting factor in the growth rate of technology will also be the human capacity and the demand for innovative products. In the field of computer software development by a too low degree of competition and market concentration is attenuated. However, it remains questionable whether, without the monopolistic position of Microsoft in general the present high level would have been achieved.

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Zusammenfassung: Hotspots der Futurologie im Web

Katja Kanapin, Ritu Gulati, Kristine Herkströter

What futurology?

was a preliminary explanation of what is futurology. It is the science of the future, in analogy to the history as a science of the past. Futurology was founded by Ossip Kurt Flechtheim and 1943 for the first time in the article "Teaching the future" mentioned. Flechtheim said: "The future is not configurable, it is already being influenced by their predictions. It is important to design a systematic and scientific methods to desirable results. "
futurology tried the positive possibilities of the future against the negative limitations of the past to enforce.

hotspots
The term hotspot findet in vielen Bereichen Verwendung. Geprägt wurde er hauptsächlich durch die Telekom. In diesem Zusammenhang versteht man darunter einen Internetzugriffspunkt. Über diesen Punkt kann man an verschiedenen öffentlichen Orten auf das Internet zugreifen (z.B. in Kneipen, Flughäfen, Universität). Im Bereich der Gentechnik findet diese Begrifflichkeit ebenfalls Verwendung. DNA-Stellen werden als Hotspots bezeichnet. An diesen Stellen findet besonders häufig ein Austausch von Basenpaaren statt. Außerdem wird der Begriff Hotspot im Bereich der Geologie verwendet. Gemeint ist damit das Zentrum vulkanischer Aktivität. Diese Erklärung kommt den hier gemeinten Hotspots am nächsten. Besser ausgedrückt handelt es sich bei Hotspots um the center of current research
.
The steam engine (1769), the discovery of penicillin (1928) or of nanotechnology (1959 first mentioned) is important hot spots of the past. Other major hotspots for example, were the invention of the automobile, the Internet, vaccines or the computer.
Today, nanotechnology, biotechnology and information technology on the rise. The future development is, however, meaning that it brings together the fields here. Everything is small, computers are equipped with artificial intelligence, biological computers are built and simulated human qualities with it. An example of a hotspot of the future is the "Smart house". About the developer of the intelligent home can open up a variety of sources. In this context
we come to the Siemens and Microsoft. Different functions in your home can be started via SMS, e-mail or telephone. These communication media serve as a remote control. The devices in the house are connected to a private network. This allows communication between previously independent devices and systems is possible. Not only the owner can get in touch with his property, but also the
property with the owner. If problems arise, can solve the problem of the residents directly by phone, email or SMS.
In the Web 3.0 handelt sich um einen weiteren Hotspot. Zurzeit ist das Web 3.0 noch „Zukunftsmusik“, an der Verwirklichung wird jedoch gearbeitet. Beim Web 3.0 wird die Semantik der Inhalte festgelegt. Daten werden verstanden und es kann entsprechend gehandelt werden. Man könnte von einem intelligenten Web sprechen. Dem Internet soll die Verarbeitung und Verknüpfung hinsichtlich der Bedeutung beigebracht werden. Mit dieser künstlichen Intelligenz könnten Suchmaschinen unter Umständen überflüssig werden. Das könnte zum Beispiel wie folgt aussehen:
Man möchte Urlaub an einem warmen Ort machen und das zur Verfügung stehende Budget liegt bei 1000€. Eine weitere Bedingung ist, dass das Haustier mit verreisen soll. Das intelligente Web searches in a step the right "solution." A well-planned vacation package is the result.
The topic can be viewed critically. From recent developments, there are already negative effects. Future developments already solved from criticism. Man is always "transparent". Examples that illustrate this fact are biometric passports, surveillance cameras, and checks on personal Internet activities.

Conclusion: Increase
Future hotspots such as the intelligent house or nanotechnology, the quality of life. We also get a performance increase by miniaturization (eg, see the new Cell phones). By nanotechnology and biomedicine man reached a higher life expectancy. Medical progress makes life easier. At this point we can draw on the quote from Flechtheim. "It is important to design a systematic and scientific methods to desirable results."

discussion
Following a discussion took place on the subject.
It was about possible sources that give a good overview of the topic. It was noted that although there are many sources, but these are often of websites of various companies. Therefore, a sensitive treatment of the sources is essential. Information should be questioned, since long-term forecasts can be made difficult. A total of futurology is an interesting, but critical to be considered science.
Often laymen create better forecasts. Predictions about the future of "confounding variables" tainted. The person often has no influence on it. Man can make up to a certain extent its future, in some ways he remains "the mercy of nature."

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literature

I set up a new journal of literature and ancient sources on the topic of Greco-Egyptian religious and sacred sites http://graeco-aegyptische-religion-literatur.blogspot.com/

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summary of the thesis "The one you enter will recognize the entity"

The spread of the late Egyptian and Greco-Egyptian Religion in den Mittelmeerraum ist seit den 60er Jahren des 19. Jhs. ein weitreichend diskutierter Aspekt der Geschichts-, Religions- und Kulturwissenschaften. Die außerhalb Ägyptens verehrten Gottheiten waren vornehmlich Isis, Sarapis, Harpokrates, Anubis und Osiris. Besonders Isis und der unter König Ptolemaios I. in den ägyptischen Götterkreis aufgenommene Sarapis waren galten im hellenistischen Ägypten als Universalgottheiten, die auch außerhalb des Mutterlandes, zunächst besonders im östlichen Mittelmeerraum, eine schnell Verbreitung und Anhängerschaft fanden. Untersucht wurden von Seiten der Altertumswissenschaften die sich auf den Kult beziehenden griechischen und lateinischen Schriftquellen, die ikonographischen Zeugnisse and - taken separately to the archaeologically-detectable sanctuary facilities.
An analytic and comparative study of the architecture of the shrines Greco-Egyptian gods, and was an interdependence with the places of worship fulfilling life taken because of this existing gap in research with this work. From the interdisciplinary exchange of Classical Archaeology and Egyptology at the Archaeological Institute of the University of Hamburg already resulted in my MA thesis (see post: The Beginning ...), which is to be regarded as preliminary work of the dissertation, but at that time with only one structural element, the so- referred Wasserkrypten employ could. The aim of this study was to worship the specific nature of the cult of the Greco-Egyptian gods in the Mediterranean established sanctuaries in total work out.

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The beginning ...


Auf dieser Seite möchte ich in Zukunft Informationen zur Religion gräco-ägyptischer Götter veröffentlichen und mit Interessierten diskutieren.

Da meine Dissertation on the subject yet published, I would like to briefly refer to my thesis that is already freely available on the Internet: The
Wasserkrypten in the Hellenistic and Roman sanctuaries of the Egyptian gods in the Mediterranean (2007)